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Scenarios facing the future of Islamic republic of Iran schools in the horizon of 1420
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Mohamadreza Tohidi atashgah1    , Nader Soleymani * 2, Hamidreza Shafiezade1 |
1- university of Garmsar
2- university of Garmsar , drnasoleimani@yahoo.com |
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Abstract: (802 Views) |
Abstract: Obtaining precise knowledge of the future may seem elusive in today’s complex world. However, the endeavor to identify potential futures remains crucial for educational decision-makers. Future research combines reasoning, choice, and action. Scenario-based analysis is a strategic method within future research. How will the future of Iranian schools unfold? What scenarios lie ahead for Iranian schools?
Method: This qualitative study engaged library research and semi-structured interviews across various disciplines to explore the future of Iranian schools. Interviews included 14 informed participants: 3 former education ministers, 4 prominent education system critics, 4 school principals and teachers, and 3 education-focused futurists. From prior research and interviews, 17 influential factors shaping the future of schools were extracted. Leveraging scenario-based software and insights from 10 educational experts, 10 key factors emerged. By examining critical uncertainties using the Scenario Wizard software, future scenarios for Iranian schools were constructed.
Finding: In the favorable scenario, educational tours visiting Iranian schools are envisioned within 20 years, contingent upon substantial prerequisites. Conversely, in an unfavorable scenario, people disengage from schools, seeking alternative methods for educating their children. The probable scenario navigates a middle path: schools address existing challenges while inadvertently creating new ones. Despite these variations, societal scrutiny persists, holding schools accountable for their role in shaping future citizens.
Conclusion: According to the findings of this study, distancing ourselves from unfavorable and probable scenarios requires decisions beyond the realm of education. The intricate interplay of factors and their reciprocal effects seems to surpass the capacity of the education system to resolve. Expanding future studies in the field of education can contribute to clarifying the path ahead. |
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| Keywords: Future studies of schools, scenario writing, key uncertainties, scenario wizard |
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Full-Text [PDF 1272 kb]
(184 Downloads)
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Type of Study: Research |
Subject:
Special-Qualitative
Received: 2023/06/14 | Revised: 2024/08/17 | Accepted: 2023/08/30 | ePublished ahead of print: 2023/10/3 | Published: 2024/05/21 | ePublished: 2024/05/21
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